What’s with the price of gas, anyway? And why aren’t we seeing the typical response at the pumps that we normally do when an oil company announces a problem?

Earlier this week the country was thrown a curve ball when BP announced that it was shutting down its Alaska operation to repair corroded pipes. One pipe had leaked a few barrels of oil, which prompted an investigation of the pipes that carry oil from the North Slope.

This shutdown will take some 400,000 barrels of oil out of domestic production each day. While all the oil is destined for refineries along the west coast, experts predict that this drop, representing 8% of the nation’s domestic production, will be felt across the country.

Will it?

The markets responded in usual Pavlovian fashion, bidding up the price of crude by over $1.50/barrel. Normally between the rise in market price and the bad news in the press, we see gas stations increasing their prices instantly. (This, as you know, is long before the higher priced-gas ever hits the local stores.)

But a funny thing has happened, at least in the Milwaukee, Wis. area. On Sunday, the price in my corner of metro Milwaukee was running around $3.24 per gallon. (All right: $3.23/gallon, for those who fall for that silly 9/10 cent pricing gimmick.) When the news broke the next day about BP’s no-so-little problem up in Alaska, I figured I’d better top off the gas tank. Surely the gas stations would be bumping their prices soon.

Next day, I see that average price actually dropped, in some cases four cents per gallon. What gives?

The problem is that without the typical reaction from the retailers, it’s difficult for consumers to plan their purchases. Anyone with at least five years of driving experience under his belt knows that buying gas is a game. The consumers take part in the silly little dance with the retailers (who, admittedly, take direction from the wholesalers).

Bad news about oil prices—war in Nigeria, cutbacks in Venezuela, uncertainty about Iran’s nuclear ambitions—always cause the money-changers in the markets to bid up the price of oil. This even though there was no change in the quantity of oil on that day. The traders claim that oil supplies may get tighter. The price of crude jumps, and like dominoes falling down, so goes the price of gas at the pump.

The recent anomaly in the Milwaukee area appears to be holding. Perhaps it’s a sign that the various players in the energy business are willing to take a cautious approach. Enough yelling “Fire!” when there never was one.

Let’s hope consumers maintain their vigilance and patience. That’s how you beat the gas producers at their own game.